Will Starmer’s U-turn on winter fuel payment cuts be enough to win back voters?

One of Rachel Reeves’s first decisions when she became chancellor last summer was to strip 10 million pensioners of their winter fuel payments.

The move was designed to show that Labour could take tough choices and was serious about sorting out the economy.

But, in the weeks and months since, it has proven toxic for both her party and her government. Yet Keir Starmer has now said he wants to make sure “more pensioners are eligible”.

So why is the government performing a U-turn now — and will it work?

Sir Keir may have told MPs the major step is because the economy is beginning to improve — so the UK can now afford it.

And it is true that recent economic news might give the Treasury more wriggle room on the issue.

But there is no doubt that the prime minister and the Labour frontbench have come under intense pressure to find a solution since the cuts to the allowance played a key role in the party’s recent disastrous local election results.

Labour has been spooked by vote, which saw Nigel Farage’s Reform party take more than 500 council seats across England and win a Westminster by-election in Runcorn and Helsby — previously been a safe Labour seat.

But an attempt to take the fight to Mr Farage with a crackdown on immigration led to a furious backlash for the Labour leader. His own MPs joined trade unions and charities in comparing his language with that of the far right and Enoch Powell after he claimed that the UK risks becoming “island of strangers”.

No 10 is also facing a potential rebellion from Labour MPs next month when tough welfare cuts, including to disability payments, are due to be voted on in the House of Commons.

More than 100 Labour MPs have already signed a letter raising their concerns about the changes.

Such is the fury among the Labour backbenches that the work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall was forced on Wednesday to say they are needed to save the system from collapse.

Sir Keir was challenged about both issues at a packed, behind closed doors meeting of Labour MPs in parliament on Monday night.

The row over winter fuel payments has also hit the PM’s reputation internationally. A top economist recently said Sir Keir was known around the world for taking winter fuel payments from pensioners.

Paul Johnson, the boss of the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), warned the policy has had a “much bigger, from a political and reputational point of view, (effect) than the government expected.”

On a more positive note for the prime minister, focus groups of voters have told Labour that it could be forgiven for the winter fuel cuts — if there is a full or semi-U-turn.

The message has been that voters may not hold a grudge.

This is important. There is little to no point in politicians using political capital to order a U-turn if it will have no effect.

A recent poll by More in Common found the public was three times more likely to say they would think better of the government if they U-turn on winter fuel. They were also twice as likely to say ministers would look strong rather than weak.

Luke Tryl, from the pollsters, said that “voters don’t mind occasional U-turns”.

So, the government, and its MPs, appears to have been thrown a lifeline. That could help the PM fight off Reform and help keep his own backbenchers onside.

Effectively, it is not too late, voters have told Labour. As long as ministers act swiftly – and enough people feel the benefit, of course.