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Ukraine was expected to sign a mineral and profit-sharing deal with the United States on Wednesday evening in Washington following two months of testy negotiations.
Previous versions of the deal presented by Donald Trump’s negotiators insisted that Ukraine pay back the aid the US had given it over the last three years of war. The latest version, according to the Ukraine’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal, no longer makes that demand.
Mr Shmyhal said the reworked agreement has become a "real partnership deal", which could consider future US aid as part of contributions to the fund and might be signed off as soon as Thursday.
Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister in charge of economic affairs was heading to DC on Wednesday to sign that deal which, according to the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, will be in two parts.
“I expect the general part to be signed today and then there is a second one that details the technical issues of how the [joint] fund will be managed,” said Oleksandr Morezkho.
The deal does not mention Ukrainian liability for past aid spent, which Mr Morezkho said was a “victory”. Trump had previously demanded $300 billion in back payments on the US contribution to the defence of Ukraine, which has been about $130 billion since 2022.
“Both countries will be equal parties in the sharing of investment and an equal share in the resources of Ukraine. The profits, for the first ten years, for both countries, will be spent on rebuilding Ukraine infrastructure and local investent,” he told The Independent.
He said that there would be no taxes on the US part of the fund and no tariffs on Ukrainian mineral exports to the US.
The key issue of Ukraine’s security appears to have been addressed by references to the Budapest Memorandum, the 1994 documents signed by China, Russia, Ukraine, the US and UK, that guaranteed Ukraine’s security when it gave up its vast nuclear arsenal.
There is a hope that by having US investments in Ukraine the Trump administration will see this as having skin in the game and take the defence of Kyiv more seriously.
So far this year Trump has taken a strongly pro-Russian line and adopted many of the Kremlin’s demands as his own in prescribing the terms for a ceasefire.
The agreements will have to go in front of the Ukrainian parliament for ratification. Mr Morezkho said he was likely to support it but wanted to see the details of the first phase of the agreement and the extent to which is would result in greater security for Ukraine.
Other Ukrainian sources said that they thought US would have had to express interest in Ukraine’s security because that would be essential in getting the backing of president Volodymyr Zelensky.
The first phase of the deal has also dropped previous American demands to control Ukraine’s infrastructure.
The softening of the US position through the negotiations may have been helped by a hard line taken by Vladimir Putin over ceasefire talks. Ukraine has repeatedly offered an unconditional 30 day, or more, ceasefire in talks brokered by Washington. Putin, meanwhile, has refused the offers and demanded ceasefires in areas where he is vulnerable – notably the Black Sea.
The deal is unlikely to affect Putin’s offer of a three day ceasefire on May 8 to mark Russia’s celebration of victory over Nazi Germany.
It does, however, represent a shift in the attitude of the Trump administration to Ukraine. Zelensky has already said that he would back a 30 day ceasefire from May 8 but that he believed the Russian proposal was a stunt.
The key is that the US had shown every sign that if, as threatened, they walked away from negotiations in frustration, Ukraine risked being blamed. This would have jeopardised continued military and intelligence support for Kyiv.
With a mineral deal imminent, marking 100 days of the Trump administration, Ukraine and the US can share a joint “win” - and Kyiv may, for now, believe that while Trump’s support is not morally driven, it may now be underwritten by the prospects of American profits.
English (US) ·