Starmer warned benefit cuts could be ‘as toxic’ as axing winter fuel allowance as 800,000 miss out

Sir Keir Starmer's benefit cuts will strip 800,000 legitimate disability claimants of support, a think tank has warned.

New analysis showing that the support is largely going to claimants it was intended for has called the justification for the prime minister’s benefit cuts into question.

And, as Labour grapples with the fallout of its local election drubbing, blamed primarily on cuts to pensioners’ winter fuel payments, economists have warned the disability cuts could prove “just as toxic” politically.

The PM’s move to slash welfare spending by £5bn through cuts to personal independence payments (PIP) was based on claims the system is too lenient.

In a policy paper explaining the cuts, the government cited a 34 per cent jump in the number of disabled working-age people in England and Wales claiming incapacity or disability benefits between 2020 and 2024. This was double the 17 per cent rise in the number of disabled working-age people overall over the same period, the government said.

“It is therefore clear that the structure of the benefits system is also a factor contributing to the increase in claims for incapacity and disability benefits,” it added.

Sir Keir used the figures to claim the current welfare system is “morally and economically indefensible”.

But an analysis from think tank the New Economics Foundation (NEF), shared with The Independent, shows the rate of successful claims for PIP, the main disability benefit, had remained steady at 50 per cent since before the pandemic.

Meanwhile, 46 per cent of disabled people claim PIP, compared with 40 per cent before the pandemic, which NEF said showed that the rise in claims is due to an increase in people applying for benefits they are already entitled to.

“This suggests that the disability benefits bill has risen due to two factors: a rise in the number of disabled people eligible for state support, and a rise in deprivation, meaning that disabled people previously not claiming support are now looking for additional financial help from the government,” the think tank added.

Under the changes, someone someone who needs assistance washing below their waist, uses an aid to use the toilet or deal with incontinence, needs assistance dressing their lower body or needs an aid to to speak or hear would no longer be eligible for PIP.

NEF senior economist Max Mosley said: “Our analysis suggests that PIP is going to exactly the sort of people it is intended to support, but that higher rates of disability and financial hardship are driving more people to claim.

“The government's plans to restrict access to PIP will lead to hundreds of thousands of disabled people missing out on support they very much need. This could well prove to be as politically toxic for the government as cutting the winter fuel payment.”

Sir Keir has already faced a fierce backlash over the planned cuts, with left-wingers vowing to vote against the changes when they are put before parliament.

Research has shown that nearly 100 Labour MPs have a majority smaller than the number of disabled people who face losing their benefits in their constituencies, adding to the intensity of the rebellion.

Outspoken Labour MP Rachael Maskell has said there is “deep, deep concern” among colleagues in the Commons.

Meanwhile, 16 major charities - including the Trussell Trust, Scope, and Mind - have penned a letter to the government warning that benefit cuts would have a “catastrophic impact on disabled people up and down the country”.

The Department for Work and Pensions was asked to comment.