Net migration predicted to fall by up to 250,000 in major boost for Starmer

Net migration to the UK is set to fall by as much as 250,000 when new figures are released on Thursday, a think tank has predicted in a major boost for Sir Keir Starmer.

Despite a poll indicating more than half of Britons (58 per cent) expect net migration to increase, the British Future think tank believes the Office of National Statistics (ONS) update will show a significant drop in the number of people arriving in the UK.

Net migration climbed to a record 906,000 in June 2023, and it stood at 728,000 in the year up to June 2024. With fewer work and study visas being granted by the Home Office, it is expected that the overall estimated net migration to the UK will fall.

The prime minister has already promised that the government’s new immigration measures will mean net migration falls “significantly” over the next four years. Plans unveiled last week include a ban on the recruitment of care workers from overseas, tightened access to skilled worker visas, and tougher English language requirements for spouses coming to the UK.

Though Sir Keir did not set a target for how much the government wants to bring net migration down by, the Home Office estimated that the new policies could lead to a 100,000 drop in immigration per year by 2029.

Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: “Falling net migration is one of Britain’s best-kept secrets. The ONS figures will show a dramatic fall, probably by over a quarter of a million, but that will come as a complete surprise to 90 per cent of the public.

“That’s because our political debate on immigration has failed to keep up with reality. Immigration remains high but is much lower than the previous peaks. It will likely fall further.

“We need a different immigration debate that looks forward to how we manage the pressures and gains of migration for the economy, infrastructure and public services.”

The Migration Observatory, at the University of Oxford, has also said that it is widely expected net migration numbers will fall, tracking a decline since a post-Brexit high of non-EU nationals coming to Britain.

The number of people coming to the UK on health and social care visas has been consistently falling since restrictions were introduced by the then-Conservative government in 2024. These measures were introduced in an attempt to row back on large immigration rises under prime minister Boris Johnson.

Then-home secretary James Cleverly restricted the ability of students and care workers coming to the UK to bring family members with them, and salary thresholds across the skilled worker route were also increased.

The Independent revealed this month that applications for health and care workers visas are now at a record low.

Between April 2023 to March 2024, there were 129,000 applicants, but that plummeted to just 26,000 in the year to March 2025, according to government figures.