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Nigel Farage has “broken new ground” by winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, Britain’s top pollster has declared.
Polling guru professor Sir John Curtice said the victory is a “very substantial success” for Reform UK which proves the party is a major threat to Labour and the Conservatives.
Sir John said Mr Farage never won a by-election with Ukip where his MP was not the incumbent, with its two by-election wins coming after sitting MPs defected from the Conservatives.
“So, to that extent, we have now broken new ground in terms of parliamentary by-elections,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
Sir John added: “We were looking to these elections to answer whether the message of the opinion polls is correct that Reform poses a significant threat to the traditional dominance of the Conservatives and Labour of our electoral politics.
“It already seems to be clear that the answer to that question is yes. Winning the by-election in itself was a very substantial success for Reform.”
Sir John said that early morning results across councils also showed a shift in support from the Conservatives to Reform, adding that former “true blue” parts of England “look now rather like Turquoise England” - the colour of Mr Farage’s party.
Sir John’s comments came after pollster Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos, said Reform looked like “the real deal” following overnight election results.
Mr Pedley said: “Although Labour will be relieved to be holding on to three mayoralties, we have seen large swings away from Labour in each of the races.
“Reform is clearly nipping at their heels. This is most clearly illustrated by Reform’s narrow victory in Runcorn, giving the party an additional voice in parliament. Put simply, the increase in support we have seen in opinion polls is real.”
The comments came after Mr Farage’s party beat Labour by six votes in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, triggered by Mike Amesbury’s drunken assault of a constituent.
The narrow victory for new MP Sarah Pochin saw Reform taking a constituency which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 less than 12 months ago.
The result came as Reform made gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England in local contests, with Mr Farage claiming a "big moment" was taking place in politics.
Mr Farage said: "For the movement, for the party, it's a very, very big moment indeed, absolutely, no question, and it's happening right across England."
He said it was a sign that Sir Keir had "alienated so much of his traditional base, it's just extraordinary".
As well as the Runcorn by-election, voters on Thursday took part in contests to elect more than 1,600 councillors across 23 local authorities, along with four regional mayors and two local mayors.
Reform's Dame Andrea Jenkyns, a former Conservative minister, won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoral race.
There was some good news for Labour as the party held the West of England mayoralty, with Helen Godwin beating Reform's Arron Banks by 5,945 votes, with the Green Party's Mary Page in third.
The party held the North Tyneside mayoralty, although with a majority of just 444 ahead of Reform in second place.
The Tories, in Kemi Badenoch's first electoral test as leader, were also suffering at the hands of Reform and could also be squeezed by the Liberal Democrats.
Reform is set to take control of Staffordshire County Council after taking 24 of the 30 seats to be counted overnight, with Conservatives winning the other six.
It means when counting resumes later on Friday, Reform needs to win just eight more seats to have a majority on the council.
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