Bitcoin breakout to $120K on radar as markets forget Fed July rate cut

Key points:

• Bitcoin continues to range around $103,000 as bulls struggle to keep upside momentum going.

• Traders favor short-term BTC price gains eventually returning, while overall faith in the bull market varies.

• Fed rate cuts seem increasingly far off despite encouraging inflation data.

Bitcoin (BTC) hugged familiar territory around the May 14 Wall Street open as traders awaited fresh US macro cues.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Trader: BTC needs $108,000 reclaim for breakout

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed $103,000 remaining a BTC price magnet.

Bulls had managed another trip to $105,000 the day prior, with momentum nonetheless lacking after brisk gains throughout the first half of the month.

Now, traders eyed consolidation prior to a return to volatility, with predictions favoring further upside.

— Phoenix (@Phoenix_Ash3s) May 14, 2025

“Even though $BTC looks great IMO, I still stand by the fact that it probably moves sideways from here for a while, which would probably be great news for alts tbh,” popular trader Byzantine Trader wrote in one of his latest posts on X. 

“If BTC remains calm, then alts can do their own thing for a bit.”

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Byzantine General/X

Despite seeing the Bitcoin bull market unwinding sooner rather than later, fellow trader Roman agreed that higher highs would come first.

“Looking for more upside if we can continue to consolidate here as consolidation = continuation of trend. Yes my macro views believe the $BTC bull is close to over but there’s still some room for short term upside,” he told X followers. 

“Break 108 resistance and 120 is possible.”

Market rate cut odds “adjusted” after CPI

Macro influences were less pronounced on the day thanks to a gap in US inflation data releases.

Related: BTC bulls get 'biggest signal' — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The day prior, a lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) print had failed to spark a fresh crypto rally, with eyes now on the Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers due on May 15.

Commenting, trading firm QCP Capital stressed that the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy was dictating market expectations. Interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, a would-be risk-asset tailwind, were being increasingly priced out.

“US CPI came in below expectations, providing a welcome reprieve to inflation worries and bolstering bets on rate cuts,” QCP wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers. 

“Still, the Fed remains cautious. At its last meeting, officials reiterated a data-dependent stance, flagging the uncertain downstream effects of tariffs on both unemployment and inflation.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the Fed’s September meeting as the likely occasion to deliver the next cut.

“Market pricing has also adjusted accordingly, with two rate cuts now expected for 2025, down from four just a month prior,” QCP added.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.