5 things to watch for on NBA Draft lottery day

With the NBA Draft lottery taking place on Monday, the future of 12 non-playoff teams, as well as the Houston Rockets, will be determined. They'll learn where they're selecting and begin preparing for the NBA Draft on June 25. 

The lottery is filled with excitement because of the unknown as bouncing lottery balls decide each team's fate. While the teams with the three worst records from this past season have the highest probability (14%) of getting the first overall pick, it doesn't always go as planned. In 2024, the Atlanta Hawks, who had a 3.7% chance of winning the lottery, got lucky, ultimately using the top selection on Zaccharie Risacher. 

This season, former Duke forward Cooper Flagg is the indisputable crown jewel, so fans of each of the non-playoff teams, and of the NBA in general, will be clamoring to watch the entirety of Monday's event and find out where he'll end up. Here are five more things to watch for on NBA Draft lottery day:

2025 NBA Draft Lottery: Odds, how it works, date, time

1. No guarantees beyond Flagg

Rutgers guard Dylan Harper is the consensus No. 2 prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft class, but that doesn't mean he'll be selected second overall. 

If the Washington Wizards, who ended the season with the second-worst record, end up with the second pick, Harper fits their roster perfectly. The Wizards have a slew of scrappy young players, including Carlton "Bub" Carrington, Kyshawn George, and Alex Sarr, a rim protector they selected with the second-overall pick in 2024. Harper would provide them with a primary ball-handler and an offensive hub. 

Harper would also be a good option for the New Orleans Pelicans, who have a 12.5% probability at the top pick, allowing them to move on from C.J. McCollum and rebuild around Harper, Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy. The Brooklyn Nets, who have a 9% chance of getting the first pick, would also take Harper if they jumped to two, as they have no real building blocks because they haven't owned their first-round pick since 2021. Therefore, picking the best available player, in Harper, would make sense. 

On the other hand, a team like the Utah Jazz, who have a 14% probability at the top pick, after ending the season with the league's worst record, could pass on Harper because they already have a plethora of young ball-dominant guards. Instead, they could select Harper's college teammate, Ace Bailey, a lengthy wing with a high offensive ceiling. 

The same goes for the Philadelphia 76ers, who are set at point guard with Tyrese Maxey and would prefer to add complementary pieces rather than a score-first guard; and the Charlotte Hornets, who don't have a need for Harper if they want to continue building around guard LaMelo Ball. 

2. OKC again?! Why Philly is sweating

Before the start of the 2024-25 NBA season, the Philadelphia 76ers were arguably in the same tier as Eastern Conference juggernauts such as the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. The NBA Draft lottery wasn't in their vocabulary. But, things went awry. Superstar Joel Embiid never returned to full health, playing in just 19 games, and appearing like a shell of himself. The 76ers tried to patch things together, relying on Tyrese Maxey to keep them afloat while they waited for Embiid to return to MVP form. 

When that reality became far-fetched, they realized they had to pull the plug on the season. That's because the 76ers would only retain their first-round selection if it fell within the top six. If not, it would go to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who, under general manager Sam Presti, have consistently built up an arsenal of draft picks that include their own and their opponents' through witty trades. 

Wanting to control their pick and keep it from the Thunder, the 76ers opted to shut down Embiid, and then, when Maxey re-injured a sprained finger on April 9, they took extra precautions and sat him for the rest of the season, too. With their top two players out, the 76ers finished the season 24-58, impressively tanking their way to the fifth-worst record. 

Now, the odds are in their favor to keep their pick and add a young piece to help them re-tool. But, there's not much room for error. If just two teams above them get lucky and jump the 76ers, they will lose the pick to the Thunder. 

That scenario would be an abject disaster for Philadelphia as it would have wasted a season with Maxey and Embiid just losing its draft pick. For OKC, it would be a pleasant surprise, as it ended the season as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and could still have high draft capital. Therefore, Thunder fans will watch the lottery ready to laugh like evil villains because getting the 76ers' pick would be a heist. 

3. Could the Spurs actually get Flagg?

The simple answer is, yes. Anything can happen during the NBA Draft lottery. The Spurs have a 6.0% chance of winning, which is almost double what Atlanta had last year when it won. 

San Antonio is the team that could maybe take the largest leap if the bingo balls bounced its way. In that scenario, the Spurs could pair Cooper Flagg with a core of Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, and be on their way to having a third straight Rookie of the Year, and being the next beast in the Western Conference. 

Watching where the Spurs land on Monday will be a fun storyline. But, it will also be important to watch what they do in the weeks after the lottery, as they'll have two selections in the top-14 and could use that capital to enter the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade discussions. 

4. Best fit for Flagg?

Let's call Atlanta winning last year's lottery a fluke and say that one of the favorites will win the 2025 NBA Draft lottery. So, out of the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets, who each have a 14% chance of getting the first pick, where would we like to see Flagg land the most? 

The Charlotte Hornets are the best fit for Flagg. A Duke product, he wouldn't have to travel far. Then, there's the basketball side of things. His athleticism would make him a perfect lob partner for Lamelo Ball. His defense would also be helpful for a team built around Ball, a minus defender. Flagg also wouldn't be required to handle the ball and initiate the offense, as Ball is one of the game's best passers and Brandon Miller, the No. 2 pick in 2023, is a dynamic on-ball scorer. 

On the Jazz and Wizards, Flagg would be expected to shoulder the bulk of responsibility on both sides of the ball. He's capable of doing so, but the Hornets roster is more complimentary to his talents, and his skills are something their current core lacks. 

5. Things get worse for Suns (and better for Rockets)

PSA Suns fans: Don't tune into Monday's lottery unless you want to torment yourself and see the repercussions of Houston acquiring your pick as part of the deal that landed Kevin Durant in Phoenix. Unfortunately for Suns fans, there's not much to be excited about on Monday. While Phoenix ended the season 36-46, on par with lottery teams, Houston has the rights to its 2025 first round pick regardless of where it lands.

So, Rockets fans, you're in a similar boat to the Thunder. You watched your team exceed expectations, finishing second in the Western Conference in the regular season, and now you get another young player for free. Unlike the Thunder, though, the Rockets would retain this pick wherever it falls. So, yes, there is a 3.8% chance it becomes the No. 1 overall pick and Cooper Flagg goes to a team that won 52 games this past season. 

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