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The NBA and NHL playoffs have not disappointed in the drama department. This is especially true in the NBA, where we've seen higher seeds get destroyed, as well as some unfortunate injuries to superstars.
But that's what keeps us tuned in, watching and wagering on a chance to capitalize off some exciting matchups.
With that in mind, I've got a few spots that I like for tonight's contests.
Let's take a look at where I'm putting my cash mid-week.
The Knicks are up 3-1, a stunning result after the first four games of this series. Boston was around -700 to win the series, and while the Celtics are still alive to do so, they are missing their superstar in Jayson Tatum.
Tatum tore his Achillies near the end of Game 4 and has already been in the operating room to fix the tear. This injury might do little to alter the trajectory of the series, but I’m going to wager on the Celtics team rallying together early in Game 5 to show everyone they have not quit and can play well without Tatum.
The Celtics have been the faster starting team in four games so far. They won the first quarter by a point in Game 1, then 11 in Game 2, 16 in Game 3 and 11 in Game 4. Some of these fast starts did not include high-scoring output from Tatum. He had zero first-quarter points in Game 2 and six in Game 3.
Boston can start fast without its star.
Combine that with the Knicks' poor first-quarter shooting and with the pride Boston should have after that Game 4 loss, and I like the Celtics to start fast.
PICK: Celtics (-2) first quarter
Payton Pritchard Over/Under 14.5 points
After Pritchard scored 23 points in 35 minutes in the Celtics' Game 3 win, he saw his minutes cut in Game 4. It’s a puzzling decision, with Sam Hauser out and with other Celtics players struggling to score. Pritchard finished Game 4 with 20 minutes, the fewest he’s seen since the end of February. He’s got to play more in Game 4 now that Tatum's out of the lineup.
For the series, Pritchard has scored 13, 9, 23 and 12, but he shoots the ball well when given the chance. He’s shooting 41% from 3, which mirrors his home 3-point shooting percentage for the regular season. He’s just going to see the ball more in this game, and I like his chances to get over this number.
PICK: Payton Pritchard Over 14.5 points
Knicks go up 3-1 on the Celtics. Is it clear the series is over?
The Timberwolves grinded out two wins in San Francisco to come back home for Game 5 up 3-1. One more win, and they are back in the Western Conference finals. They will get that win tonight, but I’m not laying Over 10 points.
I’ve found two other ways to wager on this game.
The Warriors have made a tremendous effort to score without Steph Curry. He will miss tonight after exiting Game 1 with a hamstring injury. That effort is appreciated, but it will be a losing battle. The Warriors have played five road games in the postseason and have scored under 100 in four of those. In this series, they had 99 points in Game 1 and 93 in Game 2.
In Game 1, Curry had 13 points in Game 1 before getting injured. G.S. got 18 from Draymond Green, who made four 3-pointers. Buddy Hield scored 24 points, and has since failed to score over 15 in the next three games. The Timberwolves defense is excellent, and it has limited the Warriors from beyond the arc.
PICK: Warriors team total Under 95.5 points scored
Here's another wager, and it's a perfect zigzag spot for Naz Reid playing at home.
Reid averages nearly 15 points at home, 1.5 points higher than on the road. His field goal percentage is seven points higher, and he shoots 41% from 3 at home. His points Over has hit this season in 73% of home games. He scored 19 in Game 1 at home and then 11 in Game 2, followed by nine and five in Games 3 and 4 on the road.
Sometimes you have to trust the zigzag system and this is the best opportunity for this game. I like Reid to score.
PICK: Naz Reid Over 10.5 points
Rudy Gobert Over/Under 4 rebounds in the first quarter
Robert has been a rebounding machine early in games. He had over four rebounds in the first three games and finished with only three in Game 4.
However, as I tweeted, it appears he’s got at least a fourth rebound here and maybe a fifth before a loose ball foul. The official scoring of this play was a Wolves team rebound.
Anyway, I’m going back to the well here with Gobert Over first-quarter rebounds. I expect the Warriors to miss more shots in this game as well.
PICK: Rudy Gobert Over 4 first-quarter rebounds
Are the Timberwolves built to win the NBA Finals?
I have three hockey wagers for tonight, and they are all correlated.
A trend I’ve followed is wagering on teams to score first after they lose. Hat tip to Jonathan Davis — @westcoasthky — for bringing attention to this trend. It’s an even better wager when the team off a loss is at home. In the second round, there have been seven opportunities for home teams to score first in the game following a loss. In six of those games, the wager was won. The lone loss was when the Leafs scored first in Game 3.
Tonight, the Leafs return home after losing the previous two games against the Panthers. They’ve scored the first goal in three of five games. Ironically enough, Florida scored the first goal in Game 2 off a loss — a win for the trend in general. So I’m taking Toronto to score first in regulation tonight.
PICK: Maple Leafs (-110) to score first in regulation
The Golden Knights are hosting the Oilers tonight after splitting both games in Edmonton. The Knights are fighting for their season tonight, down 3-1 in the series. The home team off a loss has scored first in both opportunities in this game — the Knights in Game 2 and the Oilers in Game 4.
The Knights generate a ton of scoring opportunities and I would expect even more energy and effort to score early in this game after being shutout in Game 3.
PICK: Golden Knights (-125) to score first in regulation
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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