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Newmarket isn’t the only track to stage top-class flat action this weekend with Churchill Downs staging the 151st renewal of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday evening.
With the equivalent of 2.4million in prize money heading to the winner, it is no surprise there is a field of 20 set for ‘The Run for the Roses’, but a sizeable field is unlikely to put off backers who wagered in excess of $200million on last year’s renewal at the track or on betting sites.
The Michael McCarthy-trained Journalism looks to write himself into Derby folklore in front of a staggering Louisville crowd expected to exceed last year’s phenomenal attendance of 156,000 patrons.
It is easy to see why Journalism leads the market on horse racing betting sites given his sire Curlin has a proven record of producing Classic contenders and was an outstanding dirt performer himself over nine and ten furlongs.
A US Horse Of The Year, Curlin won a host of Grade 1s and has clearly passed on his ability to Journalism who has recorded four wins already in an embryonic career, with the marquee performance so far a tenacious victory in the Santa Anita Derby.
Journalism is a worthy and solid favourite for the Kentucky Derby and is no surprise most sportsbooks have him as their market leader. However a forecast for unsettled weather and the possibility of a different test tactically means he is reluctantly overlooked here with him being so short in the market.
Second choice in the morning line is Sovereignty (11.57pm) representing leading handler Bill Mott who is on the search for his second Kentucky Derby victory courtesy of the son of Into Mischief.
Runner-up in the Florida Derby at the end of March, Godolphin’s colt ought to be well placed tactically and, as a strong late closer, could benefit more than most by the likelihood of a generous gallop.
The selection already boasts track knowledge thanks to a win in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes last October – a race which also included Kentucky Derby hopefuls Tiztastic and Sandman – and Mott has been quoted insisting that “we have as good a chance this year as we’ve probably ever had.”
Kentucky Derby Tip: Sovereignty - 1pt win @ 6/1 Betfred
Earlier on the card, trainer Chad Brown has three contenders in the chief supporting Grade 1 contest, the Turf Classic Stakes with Tampa Bay Downs scorer Running Bee the shortest of the trio on the morning line.
However, stablemate Redistricting (10.39pm) is expected to improve for his recent Fair Grounds outing - his first appearance since finishing second at Del Mar in the Seabiscuit Handicap the previous November.
The vibes are encouraging for the son of Kingman who has trained well since his comeback and he looks overpriced in the markets on several betting apps with Irad Ortiz Jr back in the saddle for the first time since partnering the selection to victory at Aqueduct in October 2023.
Churchill Downs Tip: Redistricting - 1pt win @ 10/1 bet365
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