13 hours ago
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"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
Every year, sports fans shift their attention to Louisville on the first Saturday in May for the Kentucky Derby.
There’s just something incredibly special about the event, dubbed "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports." This is the 151st "Run for the Roses," and regardless of whether you indulge in a few Mint Juleps, there is fun to be had for all — particularly when it comes to laying a few wagers.
So, let's jump into the action.
1. Citizen Bull: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion appears to be an outsider here. Stuck on the rail, he’s destined to be part of what is expected to be a fast pace and that doesn’t bode well for his chances. Add in a ridiculously fast work at Churchill Downs earlier this week, and he just might have left his race on the track. He’d be someone I’d look at fading in head-to-head matchups and potentially finishing last.
2. Neoequos: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Luis Saez
He wasn’t embarrassed by Sovereignty in either Derby prep in Florida. But he, too, appears to be a pace casualty, given where he drew down inside. He might hang around for a bit, but he can’t win.
3. Final Gambit: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luan Machado
The upset winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks on the synthetic surface should be coming from off the pace and does have some distance breeding. But this is a far tougher ask than anything this colt has seen so far. And it's also the first time he’ll race on a traditional dirt track. Could he pass the tiring speed horses in front of him and finish in the top half of the field? Sure. But that's about it.
4. Rodriguez: SCRATCHED
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
5. American Promise: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Don’t expect anything close to the 30-1 ML, as he’s been an extremely popular long-shot play this week. His Virginia Derby was great, but that was a terrible field on a different surface at Colonial Downs. He was nowhere at Oaklawn in the Risen Star and Southwest, so my gut says he’s a cut below here. He, too, should be part of the early pace and does have distance breeding, but I’m worried about a regression and about the step-up in competition. None of D. Wayne Lukas’ last 11 Derby starters have finished better than sixth. Great story if he wins — or even hits the board — but I have mixed feelings.
6. Admire Daytona: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
I don’t see it here. He won the 1 3/16 UAE Derby by a nose, but a 20-horse field at Churchill Downs is an entirely different story. Sire was primarily a sprinter to miler, and I think 1 1/4 is out of this horse's scope. I will not be using this.
7. Luxor Cafe: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: Joao Moreira
This is the Japanese runner that interests me. I’m a little concerned he could be a bit of an underlay, given Forever Young’s near-win last year. But so far, it seems like he hasn’t gotten the hype that Forever Young got last year. As was the case in 2024, interpretation of his workout at Churchill Downs varies, but I’m not going to overreact one way or the other. What I do think, however, is that it’s clear they plan on taking the horse back, given the way he worked. That's a wise plan, as we expect a fast pace. We don't know what he has been facing in Japan, but he’s won his last four races and should have the right running-style profile for the winner here, and it will be a nice price. He’s one of the few horses in which I see an upside. The last six Derby winners were the seventh choice, eighth choice, longest shot in the field (20th), eighth choice, third choice and 18th choice. None was shorter than 8-1 and five were at least 15-1. He’s one of the few horses I can see winning this race and will be prominent on my tickets.
8. Journalism: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Trainer: Mike McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
He's a well-deserved favorite, as he’s undefeated in route races and has a running style that is desired to win. If you want to knock the horse and his chances, about the only thing you can say is, in four of his five races, he’s faced just four horses. So he’ll face more horses here than he has in four of his five lifetime starts combined. His jockey, Umberto Rispoli, doesn’t have a ton of Derby experience. How will he react in a 20-horse field? Trainer Mike McCarthy is as good as they come at shipping horses to different circuits for big-stakes races. So I have no concerns about Journalism taking to the Churchill surface, unless he just doesn't like a potential off going. His daddy, Curlin, sure liked the off going, so I’m not too concerned about that. My bets will involve him occupying one spot in the exacta and trifecta, as 11 of the last 13 favorites have finished in the money. I'll have to press pick four and pick five tickets with him as well. I think he’s that good and will be tough to deny.
9. Burnham Square: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
The 2024 Derby-winning jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. has the mount on the winner of the Holy Bull and Blue Grass. He was beaten pretty soundly by Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth, but Ian Wilkes isn't someone just to show up for a Derby party. He’s had just one Derby starter (McCraken, who was eighth in 2017), so my guess is he’s in here with a solid chance to hit the board. A win might be out of the question for the late runner that began his career in a 150k maiden claimer, but he could be a decently priced option in the exotics.
10. Grande: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
It feels like Grande has some upside in just the fourth start of his lifetime. He wasn’t getting to Rodriguez in the Wood at Aqueduct, but if he improves here, nobody should be surprised. However, I wonder if he might be a need-the-lead type based on his wins in his maiden and second starts. Was the Wood run an educational run? I doubt it, considering he needed to finish second to get a spot in the gate here. Remember, too, the Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez, trainer-jockey combo isn’t a positive ROI in the Derby. There have been 14 starters — with seven being top-five betting choices — and the duo has one win with Always Dreaming, one runner-up back in 2001 with Invisible Ink and only one other runner even finished in the top five. Ten of the 14 starters finished ninth or worse. So you may get a shorter price on a horse that may not have a chance reflective of the price. He’ll be sporadically used on my tickets, as I do think he has some upside, and maybe he runs evenly around the track to grab a piece of the tri or super.
11. Flying Mohawk: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Joseph Ramos
A no-chancer who is here based on a second-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. He’s a turf horse (by Karakontie) that has points to run, so they are.
12. East Avenue: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Manny Franco
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite has been a disappointment, as he was never in it at Del Mar and then ran terribly at 4/5 in the Risen Star. He did run an admirable Blue Grass, cutting out a speedy half mile and nearly holding off Burnham Square. That was huge, as it guaranteed him a spot in the gate and ensured the pace to be hot (we think). He’s shown no affinity to pass horses if he doesn’t break on top, and with blinkers on again, I don’t think we’ll have to worry about that being an option. He's much more likely to finish last than first.
13. Publisher: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
No trainer has sent more horses to the Derby starting gate without a win than Steve Asmussen’s 26. I don’t think Publisher will be breaking his maiden — or Asmussen’s — in this race, but he could be a non-threatening third or fourth. He was a massive beneficiary of the pace collapse in the Arkansas Derby, and maybe we get a situation like that here. Asmussen’s string wasn’t great at Oaklawn this year, so we could totally see an improvement. Whether it's good enough — or how good it is — remains to be seen.
14. Tiztastic: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Of the two Asmussen runners, this is the one I prefer. Remember, at least one 15-1 shot or longer has hit the board each of the last six years, so it wouldn’t be too unreasonable to think Tiztastic could be that runner this year. I mentioned earlier how Asmussen’s barn wasn't great at Oaklawn Park this year. He’s a great example. He didn’t run exceptionally well, although he had a couple of troubled trips at Oaklawn, then exploded to win the Louisiana Derby. Granted, Chunk of Gold was the second-place horse, so let’s not overreact. But add it all up, and we have a closer who has a second- and third-place finish in graded stakes at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old, someone who has finished in front of Sandman and has a Derby-winning jockey. He might not be good enough to win, but hitting the board in a non-threatening fashion is something I can see.
15. Render Judgment: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
He's taking up space in the starting gate. That’s all.
16. Coal Battle: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Jockey: Juan Vargas
There’s plenty of reason to be skeptical of the runner that has done most of his running on minor circuits, but his last two races have me rethinking my skeptical stance on him. He was great in the Rebel, beating what was thought to be Bob Baffert’s big gun in Madaket Road and then still managed to stay for third in the Arkansas Derby when he was much closer to a ridiculous pace than either Sandman or Publisher. Mike Joyce mentioned on the "Bear Bets Pod" that trainer Lonnie Briley even said he had a short horse that day — that he decided to only work him three times as opposed to four and that loss was on him. He will not have a short horse on Saturday. Maybe he will have a horse that's not good enough, but he will be plenty fit. The 30-1 odds seem ridiculously long on a horse that was 3-1 last race and finished third. If you’re looking for a stalker that could be bombs away, you could do a lot worse than him. I’ll be using in my exacta bets.
17. Sandman: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
I’ll be standing against someone who will be a massive publicly backed horse because of the connections. He has a maiden win, a win in an optional claimer and then ran a huge figure in the Arkansas Derby when a 45.1 and 1:10.1 pace on the front end just collapsed and set it up for a closer. His races at Churchill haven’t been great either — fifth beaten ten lengths and third beaten five (by Sovereignty). His best running has come at Oaklawn. None of Mark Casse’s then-Derby runners have hit the board, but in fairness, only Classic Empire was single digits. You can’t bet them all and need to find a way to maximize your value. He’s a closer that’s been beaten by one of the top choices, will be heavily bet and hasn’t necessarily run well yet at Churchill Downs. If you like him, that’s fine. But I’m opposed.
18. Sovereignty: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
The biggest threat to Sovereignty and the list that prefer him to Journalism isn’t short. A run through his past performances shows a perfect Bill Mott progression. Didn’t take much money on his debut and used the race to just get a foundation. In the second race, he stretched out and just missed, losing to a very nice Chad Brown colt named Praetor — one who might be headed to the Preakness. Next start, he was favored in the Street Sense at Churchill and absolutely crushed a field that included Tiztastic and Sandman. Off a four-month layoff, he secured his spot in the Derby with a huge turn of foot to win the Fountain of Youth. Then he got a perfect prep for the Derby in the Florida Derby, where he wasn’t fully extended and was second to the perfect trip winner Tappan Street. As is always the case with closers, traffic is the concern. But reports are that Bill Mott couldn’t be in a better mood this week and is exuding confidence. On the negative side, in Derby history, just two of Mott’s 13 runners finished in the money. That's Country House, who crossed the wire second and was put up, and Tacitus, who was third. The second choice hasn’t won since Super Saver in 2010. That said, he’s got a huge shot and would be no surprise.
19. Chunk of Gold: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Ethan West
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
He was a distant second at boxcars in the Risen Star and a distant second at double-digit odds to Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby. I’m not seeing it.
20. Owen Almighty: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Javier Castellano
An honest horse that was 7/2 in the Blue Grass, which is the only time he’s finished off the board. This will be the second time in his career he’s finished off the board, as a speed horse from post 20 that has all the makings of being in the five path pressing a fast pace. He’s someone you might want to look at finishing last.
21. Baeza: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
This is a horse most people wanted to see draw in. He was a game second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, in what was his first race against winners. This was Flavien Prat’s first call, and he’ll cede the mount on Neoequos to Luis Saez. Was his Santa Anita Derby the result of a small field and the fact that someone had to be second to Journalism? After all, he’s been north of 14-1 in two of his four races. What type of trip can he work out from post 20? He’s someone who is kind of in between being a pace presser and a stalker, so what will Flavien Prat do? Remember, Prat worked out a trip for Country House from a far outside post in 2019. He’s definitely in with a shot. However, the surrounding hype may result in an underlay. I’ll still be using.
Kentucky Derby Betting for Beginners
Suggested Ways to Bet the Derby
$10 Win 8 ($10)
$5 Win-Place 7 ($10)
$4 Win-Place 16 (8)
$5 Win-Place 21 ($10)
$5 Exacta Key ($20)
8/7-13-14-16-21
$4 Exacta Key ($16)
18/7-13-14-16-21
$4 Exacta Key ($12)
7-16-21/8
$3 Exacta Key ($9)
7-16-21/18
$1 Trifecta ($45)
8/7-13-14-16-18-21/5-7-9-10-13-14-16-17-18-21
$1 Trifecta ($36)
7-16-18-21/8/5-7-9-10-13-14-16-17-18-21
Other plays I like this weekend. I’d play these win-place or in an exacta box with a couple of others.
Friday
Eight Belles (ninth race)
11 Look Forward 12-1
Mike McCarthy can get the weekend started right with this one. She’s two-for-two sprinting and should be full of run on the cutback from 1 1/16 to 7 furlongs.
Kentucky Oaks (11th race)
Exacta Key Box
11 Good Cheer (6-5)
with
1 Early On (30-1)
3 Fondly (20-1)
9 Tenma (12-1)
10 Take Charge Milady (12-1)
The undefeated favorite will be hard to beat, so I will use her first and second in the exacts, with four price horses. Good Cheer should get a nice setup up front, and I’ll be looking for one of the other four to complete the other exacta spot.
Saturday
CD Distaff Turf Mile (fifth race)
5 Five Towns 10-1
She’s run huge in her second off a layoff in her previous two instances. Guess what? This is also her second race off a layoff. Graham Motion’s filly gets a huge rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr., who is the best finisher in the business.
Turf Sprint (seventh race)
11 Eamonn 12-1
Eamonn needs a pace set up and clear path to close but might get it from post 11. He just has to avoid getting hung out too wide.
American Turf (ninth race)
12 Golden Afternoon 20-1
I think the favorites are vulnerable here and the pace doesn’t look superfast, so I’ll take a shot with a huge price. I’m totally drawing a line through her last race because she was rank and never comfortable. With a very good rider on the front end (Mike Smith), she might get brave on or near the lead and have a big say in the outcome.
Derby City Distaff (10th race)
7 Vahva 6-1
I’ll be a bit surprised if we get 6-1 odds on her. She’s four-for-four at Churchill Downs, including a win in this race last year. She’s worked bullets gearing up for her return, so that's good enough for me. I can appreciate those who are concerned with her last two races, but I’m taking the approach that she simply didn’t like the Del Mar surface in the Breeders’ Cup and the track at Saratoga on Ballerina Day was very speed favoring and working against her. This is a really good race.
Turf Classic (11th race)
4 Redistricting 10-1
I absolutely love this horse. There’s no way we’re gonna get 10-1, but I’ll take what we can get. He’s been favored in four of his seven starts, was 5-2 in his last race at FG off the nearly four-month layoff and just never had a great trip. Chad Brown has his main man Irad Ortiz Jr. up, and that tells me it’s all systems go for a horse that should be finishing like a freight train.
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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