2025 Belmont Stakes: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's expert picks, best bets

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

The Belmont Stakes is finally upon us.

I'll be in New York again along with our FOX Sports crew for this year's race. The 157th Belmont Stakes will take place at Saratoga Race Course for the second year in a row due to ongoing renovations at the iconic Belmont Park. 

The post time is set for 6:41 p.m. ET, and the race will be broadcast on FOX.

I think we are in for another memorable weekend. And when it comes to betting on the race, I have you covered. 

So let's jump into my betting card and thoughts on this Saturday's big race.

1. Hill Road: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz

The Peter Pan winner appears to be the best of the Triple Crown newcomers, but I do not think we’re looking at a horse that can win the race. He could, however, manage his way into the trifecta from off the pace. That's something he’s done in all three of his starts on dirt, including when he was 61-1 for his previous connections in the BC Juvenile. I’m not sure what was behind him in the Peter Pan, but you probably have to use for third just out of respect for the jockey/trainer combo. 

2. Sovereignty: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

The Derby winner ran a huge race — his career-top Beyer — after getting a clear run home. It wasn’t the cleanest of trips, though, as he did clip heels early in the race. I didn’t have an issue with Bill Mott skipping the Preakness, as he knows his horse and he’ll be pointed toward the bigger races the remainder of the year. Disappointed, yes, but I get it. We know he can handle the offgoing, so any rain will not be an issue. What could be an issue is the pace setup. He’s likely not going to get the mad dash for the lead as he did in the Derby, which means he’s not going to get the same pace to close into. Saratoga also has a tendency to be a bit more kind to horses closer to the lead on big-stakes days. And that's not to say it's a conveyor belt, but it can be hard on dead closers. He can certainly win, but I get the sense that Journalism will get the jump on him, and, unlike he did in the Derby, hold him off late. But if you’re playing multi-race wagers, you obviously want to be covered with him. 

3. Rodriguez: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith

The presence of Crudo likely means Rodriguez won’t catch a flier out of the gate and wire the field like he did in the Wood Memorial. That said, he certainly has a bit more class at both this level and routing than Crudo. He was scratched prior to the Derby with a foot issue, but there’s no reason to believe he isn’t good to go here. He’ll be a pace factor at the minimum, and if you’re looking for a bit or a price play, he’s the logical choice. However, asking him to make up about 11 lengths on Journalism — which is what he was beaten by in the San Felipe — seems like a tall order. I’ll limit my use to underneath.

4. Uncaged: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez

Tip of the cap to Mike Repole for filling out the field with Uncaged, but he’s shown nothing to have anyone believe he’s a threat to hit the board here off a poor showing in his first graded stakes try in the Peter Pan where he was over ten lengths behind Hill Road. 

Belmont Stakes Best Bets with Mike Joyce

5. Crudo: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez

Crudo hasn’t been headed in either of his last two races — his maiden win and a win in the Sir Barton — so we know Johnny V will have this horse on the lead, giving Rodriguez company up front. While speed is always dangerous, I can’t see him hanging around here for a piece of the tri. But the owners, including chef Bobby Flay, will get a thrill for a while. 

6. Baeza: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat

You can go one of two ways with Baeza. The first is that he’s set to take a big step forward, and we haven’t seen his best yet as he’s made just five lifetime starts. Off a five-week rest, this should be a career best for a runner who’s related to 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch. The other way to view Baeza — he faced Rodriguez in what were both of their second starts — Rodriguez beat him by seven lengths that day when Baeza was 15-1. He was 14-1 in the Santa Anita Derby and couldn’t keep Journalism from going by, despite Journalism having trouble in the race. He was 14-1 again in the Derby and finished behind both Sovereignty and Journalism. So what are we to believe will be different here, especially with Baeza at one third of the price he’s been? Maybe we get a change in tactics? He is certainly the buzz horse and can win, but his price will likely be way shorter than his true odds should be. It wouldn’t be surprising in the least if he runs third behind the two that finished in front of him in Louisville. 

7. Journalism: +160 (bet $10 to win $26 total)
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

Journalism will be the only runner to participate in all three legs of the Triple Crown as he’s fresh off his runner-up finish in the Derby and dramatic win in the Preakness. I must admit, I was a tad surprised he came out of the Preakness as well as he apparently has and is running here. But I’m glad he is. Much credit to trainer Michael McCarthy. He’s looked great on the track here as well. His versatility and athleticism are his strengths, as evidenced by what we saw in the Preakness. Maybe he hit the front in Louisville a bit too soon? Who knows? But he ran a winning race that day and just got beat by Sovereignty, who simply ran a better race. Given what I expect from the pace scenario Saturday, I think Journalism gets the jump on Sovereignty. I think Journalism has enough to hold him off this time to become the first horse in 70 years to finish second in the Derby, then go win the Preakness and Belmont. 

8. Heart of Honor: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Jockey: Saffie Osborne

Credit to the connections for shipping to the U.S. to give the Preakness a try, but Heart of Honor never looked comfortable over the Pimlico surface and was never in the race. I’d expect a similar result here when adding the Derby winner and Derby third-place finisher to the list of competitors. 

Suggested Ways to Bet the Belmont (adjust your dollar amounts accordingly to your budget)

$10 Win 7 ($10)
$10 Exacta 7 with 2/6 ($20)
$2 Trifecta 7 with 2/6 with 1/3  ($4)
$1 Superfecta 7 with 2/6 with 1/2/3/6 with All ($30)
$1 Superfecta 2/6 with 7 with 1/2/3/6 with All ($30)

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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