Senate Republicans move toward vote on California emissions waiver

Senate Republicans could vote as soon as next week on a controversial proposal to nix federal waivers allowing California to set its own emissions standards — potentially bringing a simmering debate over the chamber’s rules to a head.

“We're going to pass it next week,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told reporters after a closed-door conference lunch where they discussed the proposal at length.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune hasn’t yet committed to bringing the measure to the floor next week, and a key sponsor, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, cautioned that the schedule isn't “100 percent decided” yet. The Senate has until the first week of June to act under the Congressional Review Act.

But Republicans are feeling increasingly confident that they will have the votes to undo California's longstanding waivers after leaving a House-passed disapproval resolution in a weeks-long limbo. Republicans can lose three of their own and still let Vice President JD Vance break a tie.

“We’re going to do it,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said after Tuesday’s lunch, adding that he was confident because “I can tell the way people feel.” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a leadership adviser, also said that he was “very confident” that Republicans will have the votes to nix the California waiver.

The controversy is less about the policy merits and more about a Government Accountability Office ruling that said the waiver isn't actually subject to CRA review. Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough backed up that finding, and the prospect of overruling her has spooked a handful of GOP senators wary of weakening Senate rules in a way that would come back to bite them when Democrats are back in control of Congress.

Republicans are hopeful they’ll have support from at least one member Democrats have targeted — former GOP Leader Mitch McConnell — but they haven’t locked in the votes yet and are actively working to sway the undecideds.

One of them, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, said she continued to have "some procedural issues" and would meet Tuesday with Capito to work through them. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said in a brief interview she is discussing the issue with colleagues and not yet ready to make a decision.

"There is obviously apprehension if we go sideways on our own rules and so I'm having a lot of good conversations,” Murkowski said.

Democrats have sounded the alarm over a possible vote, warning GOP leaders in a letter earlier this month that it would be akin to deploying the “nuclear option” against the Senate’s rules. But Republicans are trying to minimize any blowback by focusing on the GAO ruling, not the parliamentarian.

“It’s about whether GAO is able to … veto a process that has never been questioned before,” Capito said. “I see it as us asserting our prerogative.”